North Korea Returned to Terrorism State Sponsor List

President Trump announced on Monday that “the United States is designating North Korea as a state sponsor of terrorism.” The designation, he said, “will impose further sanctions and penalties on North Korea and related persons, and supports our maximum pressure campaign to isolate the murderous regime that you’ve all been reading about and, in some cases, writing about.” North Korea is joining Iran, Sudan and Syria as designated state sponsors of terrorism.

The Treasury Department will be announcing additional sanctions on Tuesday, which President Trump claimed would “be the highest level of sanctions by the time it’s finished over a two-week period.”

According to the State Department’s website, countries determined to have repeatedly provided support for acts of international terrorism are designated pursuant to three laws: the Export Administration Act, the Arms Export Control Act, and the Foreign Assistance Act. Such a designation results in restrictions on U.S. foreign assistance, a ban on defense exports and sales, certain controls over exports of dual use items, and miscellaneous financial and other restrictions. However, North Korea has little to lose in those respects, given that it is already so heavily sanctioned by the United States that there is a lack of any direct trade with or assistance from the United States today. What is important is that, as the State Department’s website explains, the designation “also implicates other sanctions laws that penalize persons and countries engaging in certain trade with state sponsors.” The latter would provide President Trump with an additional tool to use in imposing secondary sanctions on countries or firms doing business with North Korea. China is undoubtedly taking notice.

via North Korea Returned to Terrorism State Sponsor List

The Puzzle of the North Korean ICBM

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Uncertainty remains about North Korea’s technological maturity and ability to launch nuclear warheads that could hit the US homeland, even after its recent success at launching the Hwasong-14 missile and the conducting of its most powerful nuclear test yet. The first-stage engine of the Hwasong-14 is a critical component in its possible operation as an intercontinental ballistic missile, but there are questions about how Pyongyang came by this engine, how many it possesses, and whether or not it can produce them on its own. These uncertainties are troubling not only with regard to North Korea, but also with regard to Iran. They have sobering implications about the possibility of monitoring and preventing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction worldwide.

The success of the two test launches by North Korea of the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) Hwasong-14 on July 4 and 28, as well as the powerful nuclear test on September 3, surprised and shocked the world, especially the US. This is because they suggest an eventual scenario in which Pyongyang is able to strike the American continent with nuclear weapons, a capability to which it might already be very close.

To this was added The Washington Post report of August 8, according to which the American intelligence community believes North Korea has successfully developed a miniaturized nuclear weapon that can be installed in the warhead of a ballistic missile. This achievement means Pyongyang is crossing the threshold to becoming a nuclear power. Contributing to the unease are Pyongyang’s fiery declarations, including a statement on October 16 by North Korea’s deputy ambassador to the UN that “the entire US mainland is within our firing range.”

via The Puzzle of the North Korean ICBM

The Conflict With North Korea Is Really About China

In recent weeks, President Trump and Pyongyang have escalated their war of words over North Korea’s nuclear weapons testing, with both sides hinting it could end with a nuclear conflict.

But while the rhetoric has focused on North Korea, the Central Intelligence Agency is just as worried about China.

CIA analysts say the North Korean tests have heightened the concerns the U.S. has about managing the rise of China, which sees the conflict as a way of keeping the U.S. off-balance in Asia while maintaining its influence over its immediate neighbors.

“It is, to us, not just an immediate national security threat,” the CIA’s Michael Collins, deputy assistant director for East Asia Mission Center, said last week at a national security conference at George Washington University. “It is forcing us to think about the long-term management of China.”

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North Korea Nuclear Attack Would be Deadly: In Numbers

If North Korea launched a nuclear attack, the death toll would be costly: perhaps as bad as 2.1 million deaths in Tokyo and Seoul alone.

In the event of an “unthinkable” escalation, casualties in the East Asian capitals of key American allies would be catastrophic, including as many as 7.7 million injuries, according to a new report from 38 North, a North Korea analysis group based at Johns Hopkins University’s U.S.-Korea Institute.

Since 2011, North Korea has carried out 98 ballistic missile tests and six underground nuclear tests overall. The most recent, on Sept. 3, clocked in around 120 kilotons and North Korea was quick to claim it had successfully tested a hydrogen bomb. The tests have also revealed the isolated state’s increasing technical sophistication: on July 4 and July 28, North Korean state media said it had tested intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of reaching the mainland U.S.

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Euna Lee: What I learned as a prisoner in North Korea

In March 2009, North Korean soldiers captured journalist Euna Lee and her colleague Laura Ling while they were shooting a documentary on the border with China. The courts sentenced them to 12 years of hard labor, but American diplomats eventually negotiated their release. In this surprising, deeply human talk, Lee shares her experience living as the enemy in a detention center for 140 days — and the tiny gestures of humanity from her guards that sustained her.

This talk was presented to a local audience at TEDxIndianaUniversity, an independent event. TED editors featured it among our selections on the home page.

What Parades in Pyongyang Ends Up in Tehran

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The latest parade of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard displayed a new ballistic missile, the Khorramshahr. Though it had been modified to appear less threatening, the new missile matches a North Korean ballistic missile known by different names in the West, including BM25. The Khorramshahr could eventually enable Tehran to threaten the capitals of Europe with nuclear warheads, and it raises the level of the Iranian missile threat to Israel.

Iran’s leaders love military parades and hold them twice a year. The first is in April, when the Iranian Armed Forces – the legacy of the Shah’s imperial military machine – celebrates “Army Day.” During the second annual parade, in September, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) celebrates “Sacred Defense Week,” which commemorates the eight-year Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s.

The IRGC overlaps the official armed forces in almost every respect, deploying its own infantry, armor, air force, and navy. But it possesses one service that is uniquely its own: a strategic missile force. The IRGC is tasked by the regime to develop, manufacture, and deploy Iran’s long-range as well as tactical-range missiles, including the famous liquid propellant Shahab 3 missiles and the somewhat less renowned solid propellant Sejjil 2 missiles.

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