Ordinarily, Palestinian statehood is assessed by capable scholars and analysts from the expressly limited standpoint of terrorism. In these threat-based assessments, the dominant hypothesis has generally been that a new state of “Palestine” would represent a more-or-less substantial peril of expanding terrorism to Israel. While such a hypothesis is both plausible and convincing, it misses a much larger and more consequential point. This point is the credible expectation that a Palestinian state could quickly and comprehensively present a strategic or prospectively existential hazard.
Whatever its particular form or configuration, any tangible Palestinian state threat to Israel’s national survival would likely be indirect. Metaphorically, it’s a bit like the case of an individual human being who won’t die as the direct result of some relatively insignificant or singular illness, but who could nonetheless be sufficiently weakened by such a minor “insult” to open the way for more catastrophic or terminal pathologies. Although not likely to appear under the circumstances of present weapons technologies, it is still at least conceivable that a Palestinian state would sometime pose recognizably lethal hazards for the Jewish State.
By definition, any such mega-hazards would augur more ominous sorts of destruction than what is usually associated with “ordinary” Palestinian terrorist assaults. Most plausibly, these greater hazards would make their appearance in assorted and unpredictable increments, and not in evident consequence of any sudden or dramatic “bolt from the blue” military strikes. In principle, it is similarly conceivable that Arab terror attacks launched against Israel would neither subside nor cease altogether following formalized Palestinian statehood. This is because the leaders of any future Palestinian state – an entity with more codified juridical or sovereign status than the current UN “nonmember observer state” – would continue to regard a now more vulnerable adversary as “Occupied Palestine.”