EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: “Palestine” could present a far greater threat to Israel than a third intifada or persistent terrorism. This threat, which would further exacerbate the area’s correlation of forces, is potentially existential. Under certain circumstances, Palestinian statehood could meaningfully enlarge the prospects of both mega-terror attacks and regional nuclear war.
The measure of danger posed to Israel by a future Palestinian state is not subject to casual reflection. It can be ascertained only through the disciplined examination of proper hypotheses – conceptually, systematically, and deductively, in the manner of a scientific investigation.
An application of this process shows the threat to Israel of “Palestine” to be much greater than is typically alleged. The threat is so great, in fact, that it could ultimately prove existential.
This is the case, moreover, despite the fact that the tangible threat posed by Palestine to Israel’s survival would be indirect. It’s a bit like the case of a person who won’t die as a direct result of some insignificant illness, but who will be sufficiently weakened by it to become susceptible to more terminal pathologies.
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