Good morning.

David Cameron is visiting Poland today as part of his European renegotiation tour, and is ratcheting up his rhetoric on how likely a British exit could be if he doesn’t get what he wants. The migrant crisis and the economic travails of the Eurozone make voters think “oh Christ, push Europe away from me, it’s bringing me problems’”, the Prime Minister told the Spectator. Following talks with Romania’s president yesterday, he said that the rate of net migration in the UK was “not sustainable”, and that EU member states need to show “flexibility” in meeting his concerns.

So is the Conservative leader seriously flirting with the Brexit door? Not quite yet. He has consistently made a point of not ruling out advocating Britain’s withdrawal from the EU, and he is trying to sound like he might seriously consider Brexit, after attacking the idea on a trip to Iceland. However, Eurosceptics would point out that his insistence to the Spectator that “the longer term reaction” among Britons to Europe’s problems is to say “let’s make sure our relationship with them works” suggests he is determined to stay in, no matter how the renegotiation goes. Tough sounding rhetoric won’t satisfy the Tory Outters, who still see the renegotiation as a public “charade”, with a big fuss kicked up over “trivial” demands.

In the meantime, European leaders are digging in over Cameron’s welfare demands, with European Council president Donald Tusk saying said that every EU country is “against” his plans to stop EU migrants claiming benefits in the UK for four years. Cameron’s team had prepared a compromise, according to the Times, but withdrew it amid concerns over how it would be forced. Poland is one of Cameron’s fiercest critics over his welfare proposals, with the Prime Minister expecting a tough reception when he arrives in Warsaw later today. “It’s too early to talk about compromise,” Poland’s foreign minister Witold Waszczykowski told the Telegraph. “The Poles are clear, they will not be humiliated or victimised over this,” one EU diplomat said.

As EU leaders hope to reach a deal in February, the gloomy verdicts keep coming, with Tusk warning MEPs: “Cameron will not be satisfied one hundred per cent, that’s for sure”. Is this a game of expectations management, so Cameron can return to Britain with his demands eventually met, and celebrate them as a triumph? If so, will voters agree?

“The short term reaction can be get me out of here, the longer term reaction is we must find a better way of working with our partners.”

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