Timing is everything, Boris Johnson, as David Miliband will testify

“It is the most shattering experience of a young man’s life when one morning he awakes, and, quite reasonably, says to himself: ‘I will never play the Dane.’” Uncle Monty’s words in Withnail & I are delivered with unforgettable pathos and wit by Richard Griffiths, who died on Thursday. They refer to the disappointment etched into the destiny of almost every actor. But they ring no less true in the ranks of the political class.

When Boris Johnson finally admitted to Michael Cockerell in last Monday’s BBC documentary, that “if the ball came loose from the back of the scrum” he’d quite like to be prime minister, he was simply being candid about the political psyche. There is a part of every new MP that believes he will one day occupy No 10: Hamlet in the lethal Elsinore that is Westminster.

It has taken David Miliband more than two years to accept fully the “shattering experience” of which Uncle Monty speaks. As president and chief executive of the International Rescue Committee, he will be based in New York, the capital city of the world, putting to good use his talents and experience in response to the planet’s worst humanitarian crises. But he is also serving notice that he knows he is never going to be pri

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Do the Tories actually want to win in 2015?

On Tuesday Ben Brogan observed in this paper how “an aura of end of days” is starting to envelope David Cameron. It provided a fascinating insight into the current state of mind of the Conservative party, noting: “His [Cameron’s] party operates as if he is already a lame duck. A verdict on the Cameron years is setting like concrete around his feet. His premiership is marked by disappointments, changes of direction, a falling out with his MPs and his party, and an overarching sense of promise unfulfilled.”

Not exactly a barrel of laughs being a member of the parliamentary Tory party at the moment. But amid all the gloom and resignation, a passage leapt out: “A few weeks ago it was fashionable to predict a Conservative defeat in 2015. Now Tory MPs and commentators have gone one worse: they admit, grudgingly, that Labour’s inadequacies and the calculated political blandishments of last week’s Budget might just get Mr Cameron over the line and back into No 10; but – and this is truly embarrassing – they say it will hardly be worth it because the Prime Minister makes so little difference.”

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David Miliband a colossus? He’s a greedy failure in a cosmic sulk – Telegraph

Convulsions of grief were still being felt across north London last night in the wake of David Miliband’s resignation. The BBC, which has long felt special reverence for the great man, reported the event in hushed tones. The Guardian hosted feverish and wistful discussions about whether Mr Miliband might condescend to return one day to public life.

Tony Blair regretted “a massive loss to UK politics”. A near tearful Tessa Jowell said “it’s very sad”. Lord Adonis mourned an “inspirational leader”. A tremulous Yvette Cooper praised a “powerful speaker” and a “great minister”.

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David Miliband’s departure – a ‘cosmic sulk’ or the end of New labour?

MORNING BRIEFING – By Benedict Brogan (Daily Telegraph).

Good morning. He couldn’t resist one parting shot. David Miliband’s resignation interview contained the nugget that he still considered his brother to be “a long climb” away from Number 10. Having clearly decided, in the light of generally positive media coverage, that he should resign more often, Mili D also refused to rule out a comeback insisting that he would not seek American citizenship. As Michael Deacon writes, North London took the news badly – “outside his Georgian terraced house in London’s Primrose Hill, a day-long vigil for the People’s Miliband was held by hundreds of distraught fans, each clutching a tear-stained banana” – but has British public life lost an intellectual colossus or a “greedy failure in a cosmic sulk”? Peter Oborne has no doubts:

“During his short, undistinguished career, Mr Miliband has done grave damage to British politics. He is part of the new governing elite which is sucking the heart out of our representative democracy while enriching itself in the process. He may be mourned in the BBC and in north London, but the rest of us are entitled to form a more realistic view. David Miliband has belittled our politics and he will not be missed.”

There is some speculation that Mr Miliband’s jump stateside could lead to a role in a Hilary Clinton run White House, given the regard with which he is held in her circle. “What price David Miliband in a senior role in the White House and Ed Miliband in No 10?” asks the Mail. “Stranger things have happened in politics. But none that come quickly to mind.” In Britain, however, life goes on. The Guardian reports that the Labour association in South Shields is keen on a local candidate next time, although a donkey in a red rosette ought to be able to defend his 11,109 (30.4pc) strong majority. With that in mind, the real question come polling day might be whether Ukip can continue to make headway in the north, as well as in lapsed Tory heartland seats.

And what for Labour? Reading the runes, a number of commentators including the Sun‘s Trevor Kavanagh call the end of the New Labour project, arguing that under Ed, “it has been left to pro-Blair outriders such as [Telegraph] blogger Dan Hodges to argue for a coherent Labour policy on spending and borrowing”. But as Philip Collins in the Times (£) notes, this resignation was not a gesture of political despair so much as it was about fratricide and the frustration of watching Ed having a “good scandal” over phone hacking and cementing his leadership. It may be a personal tragedy, but Mili D’s departure is hardly an ideological earthquake for the Labour paty.

HOUSEKEEPING

The Morning Briefing is taking the weekend off. Back Tuesday. Happy Easter to all subscribers.
TREASURY CALLS FOR POST-2015 SPENDING BLITZ
If you’re starting to lose track of the belt-tightening due post-2015, I don’t blame you. A private letter to ministers from Danny Alexander last night suggests that for the Treasury to achieve its Budget savings target of £11.5bn in 2015/16, a chop of up to 10pc for every non-ringfenced department will be required, we report. While the exact distribution of the cuts will not be settled until June, they will fall on departmental resource budgets, not on the welfare system. The Independent reports that the 10pc reduction will apply to every non-protected department other than defence, which will only need to cut 5pc.
Sounds like a case for the National Union of Ministers? Steady. As the Guardian explains, the 10pc figure is there simply to give the Government “options”, and a cut of that size in every targeted budget would save £3bn more than is planned. What stays and what goes will not be known until the publication of the spending review for 2015/16, and as Vince Cable has made known, that is very much a temporary document holding place until the next government is decided. As the Chancellor kept insisting in the Budget, Britain may be open to business, but with an outlook this cloudy, who would want to invest?

BUDDY, CAN YOU SPARE ME A DUCK HOUSE?

An MP’s lot has not been a happy one since the expenses scandal, certainly according to Karl McCartney. As we report, the MP for Lincoln told World at One that he had been forced to max out his credit cards, drain his loan facility at the bank and borrow money from his parents because of the intransigence of the Commons expenses body Ipsa. Mr McCartney claimed that he was owed £25,000 by August 2010 after being returned in May. He claims to have been told that this is because when the “senior management team at Ipsa…go to the pub on a Friday night and meet with their friends, their friends tell them that they should screw MPs into the ground.” All sounds very bitter to me.

OVER EXPENSIVE, OVER PROTECTED AND OVER HERE

Theresa May’s recent rise to prominence as an action woman received a setback yesterday. The decision of the High Court to back the November decision of the Special Immigration Appeals Commission to prevent his deportation came despite the acknowledgement that the UK regarded him as “a danger to national security”. A rigid interpretation of human rights rulings in favour of Qatada is bound to re-0pen the Tory debate on scrapping the measures. But at the moment, it’s difficult to see how Mrs May can win given judicial intransigence. As the Mail puts it, “it is Qatada holding all the aces in a game Mrs May – and this country – really cannot afford to lose.”

RESIDENTS OF THE WORLD, UNITE!

Worried about the forthcoming spare-room subsidy ending / bedroom tax beginning? Well Frank Field has a cunning plan: knock down the walls and brick up the windows, as the landlords did in the Nine Years’ War to avoid the Window Tax. His rallying cry in the Independent comes with stern criticism of the “grossly unfair” reduction in housing benefit for under-occupancy. A glance at history might tell the protesters anticipated at demonstrations tomorrow not to be too hopeful – the universally despised window tax lasted a mere 156 years before its repeal.

THE BIG THAW

No, not the weather, but council tax bills. As we report, households are having to pay the largest increase in council tax for three years after 39pc of local authorities rejected Eric Pickles’ offer to provide funding for a rate freeze. The average bill in England will increase by 0.8pc this year, and London council tax will fall by 0.2pc. Pity the residents of Breckland in Norfolk, though. Their council tax is up 7.6pc.

EU’RE GETTING GREEDY

How’s that European austerity thing going, then? According to the BBC, the Government is battling EU demands for a further £9.5bn in member state contributions to cover its expenses this year. The UK’s share would amount to slightly over £1bn. Mind you, Eurocrats argue that they are not being unreasonable – if Britain’s domestic overspend was only £9.5bn a year, we’d think we’d done very well.

BANKING ON IT TURNING OUT RIGHT

The Bank of England’s demand yesterday that British lenders stockpile an additional £25bn in reserves did not spook the market – the figure had been expected to be larger. It won’t help get lending going again, however, and as such it conflicts directly with the Chancellor’s courageous attempt to provide liquidity to sub-prime borrowers in his recent Budget. As the Mail reports, it has certainly made Vince Cable very grumpy. “The idea that banks should be forced to raise new capital during a period of recession is an erroneous one,” he said, adding that ‘the FPC exercise will prolong the time it takes for the British economy to recover by further depressing already weak lending [to small and medium-sized businesses]. “

SAM CAM IN SYRIA

The Prime Minister’s wife has visited Syrian refugees in Lebanon on a trip with the charity Save the Children aiming to boost awareness of the plight of those in the camps. “It’s so shocking, it’s difficult to take it in. You just can’t imagine why that would happen,” she added. The tales she will have heard will stay with her for a very long time, as I wrote when I returned from a similar trip earlier this month.

TWEETS AND TWITS

Two different takes on recess. First from Kerry McCarthy:

@KerryMP: Just leaving Commons office after a triple-birthday lunch with current & former researchers then 6 hour blitz on emails. #recessnotholiday”

Then from Tom Harris:

@TomHarrisMP: “Ah, that sweet, lethal (and oddly sexy) combination of @carolynharris, Rioja and karaoke. Easter recess has begun!”

TOP COMMENT

In the Telegraph

Peter Oborne – David Miliband a colossus? He’s a greedy failure in a cosmic sulk

Sue Cameron – A high price for getting ministers out of a hole

Laura Perrins – Stay-at-home mothers deserve some respect

Telegraph view – Ministers shouldn’t play happy families

Best of the Rest

Philip Collins in The Times (£) – Don’t bury New Labour along with Miliband

Steve Richards in The Independent – David Miliband’s dignified exit does everyone a favour – including him

Trevor Kavanagh in The Sun – New Labour bunch have split for good

Chris Giles in the FT (£) – How to ‘plog’ the hole in our awful public finances

THE AGENDA

Today: Energy Secretary Ed Davey, Business Secretary Vince Cable and Scotland Secretary Michael Moore to publish the oil and gas sector strategy.

09:00 am: Nick Clegg call-in on LBC 97.3.

12:00 pm: BBC strike. Journalists and technicians at the BBC stage a 12-hour strike in disputes over job cuts and workload.

David Miliband confirms his shock resignation as an MP

Mr Miliband said he had accepted the position of president and chief executive of the International Rescue Committee in New York.

In a letter to his constituency party chairman in South Shields, he said it was “very difficult” for him to be leaving UK politics.

His move comes more than two years after he was narrowly beaten to the party leadership by his brother.

The election caused a major rift between the two and he refused to serve in Ed Miliband’s shadow cabinet.

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Ed Balls: Cameron blames me for everything. It makes him look obsessed

Ed Balls is about to take his grade two piano exam. Having narrowly failed to get a merit in his grade one, he plans no such lapse this time.

“The examiner said I played the pieces too slowly, so I have bought a metronome that I’m practising with,” he reports. “The noise is driving my family mad.”

In politics, as in music, the repetitive beat of Metronome Man can set some nerves on edge. Thus, when Ed Miliband mocked David Cameron for his U-turn on alcohol pricing at this week’s Prime Minister’s Questions, the PM focused his anger on the shadow chancellor.

Mr Balls welcomes his status as irritant-in-chief. “Well, I think that is fabulous. On his own side, they’re starting to think he’s completely lost it. [According to Mr Cameron] I caused the global financial crisis personally. It makes him look obsessed and slightly deranged.”

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Coalition split over Leveson

MORNING BRIEFING – By Benedict Brogan (Daily Telegraph).

Good morning. The Coalition is in trouble. The alliance between Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband over Leveson left David Cameron muttering about a “hung parliament” after he pulled the plug on negotiations over press regulation. The Mail has taken it very seriously with a front page headline of “Coalition is torn apart”, arguing in their leader that a “tawdry alliance” of Lib and Lab has given rise to “the pathetic spectacle of Her Majesty’s Opposition cravenly trying to appease a faded film star with a rackety sex life”. Labour and the Lib Dems, parties whose leaders have pledged to “work together” on the issue, now look likely to attempt to attach amendments to both the defamation Bill and a proposed government law cutting red-tape in an attempt to force a vote on a legislative solution. Tory sources argue that Labour is now the political wing of Hacked Off, and such is their hold over the issue that the party will attempt to wreck the Government’s entire legislative programme in order to force the matter to a vote.

While it is open to Dave to drop press legislation entirely, he would apparently prefer to gamble on securing a majority of MPs, as the Guardian‘s Patrick Wintour points out. Can he win a vote? politics.co.uk has crunched the numbers and seems to think that with abstentions from some of the minor parties, including possibly the SNP, the Miliband-Clegg axis will have a single figure majority. The Times (£) considers it “all but impossible” that Mr Cameron will prevail, while pro-Leveson Tories like George Eustice have expressed exasperation at the Prime Minister’s decision to break off negotiations by phone shortly before 10am yesterday. Our leader backs Mr Cameron’s stance as the “lesser of two evils”, but the Guardian, Independent, Mirror and FT all declined to do put their names to a statement issued by the Newspaper Society yesterday, suggesting that Fleet Street is now as divided on the issue as the Commons.

Sources say Nick Clegg left Mr Cameron in no doubt about his anger a being ambushed moments before the PM’s press conference. Curtains for the Coalition? No, but it will add to the atmosphere of animosity and distrust between the parties making governing far more difficult, particularly ahead of a spending review which both will approach with competing objectives. The Lib-Lab pact over Leveson indicates that there is a degree of chemistry between the leaders. This feels ominously like a dry-run for late May 2015.

WE WANT AUSTERITY, JUST NOT FROM YOU

The public agrees with statements about the need for austerity…until they learn they have been made by George Osborne. The Ipsos/MORI pre-Budget poll reported in the Evening Standard found that support for a statement fell when the sample learnt that it was made by George and rose when they found it was by Ed Balls. The Tories led by 11 points when unattributed statements were given. This turned into a 16 point lead for Labour when the speakers were named. What else did we learn? As the Mail notes, 55pc of voters want the overseas aid budget cut, 44pc want a reduction in welfare spending, while only 28pc would like to see a reduction on defence spending. In other words, their austerity priorities are in a reverse order to those of the Coalition. Fraser Nelson writes for us today that it might be time to re-consider some of the pension age benefits the Coalition has pledged to defend to the hilt:

“The Government is wrong to regard pensioners as charity cases, it is also wrong to dispense so much charity that it cannot really afford. The idea of free bus passes, for example, is hard to defend in the age of cuts.”

With the scope for Plan B limited, and Plan A+ ruled out, the Chancellor has no room for fiscal manoeuvring in any case, a point made by the FT (£) but disputed by Bloomberg in an editorial which calls for front-loaded fiscal easing in an editorial this morning. There are some steps being taken to make fiscal policy more effective – the FT (£) reports that an independent infrastructure commission will be established to oversee major projects over a 40 year period – but most of the activism of the next year will be on the monetary side. The Chancellor recently sent Rupert Harrison to Washington to sound out the Americans on the “evolution” of central bank policy, although it is understood a targeted nominal GDP growth rate has now been ruled out. Of course, nothing will be decided until Mark Carney arrives. In the meantime, his predecessor gave an interview to ITV last night in which he said that the economy was on the verge of recovery and that Sterling had now fallen far enough for the British economy to “rebalance”. It must be time to go. When a central banker’s tired of currency depreciation, he’s tired of life.

BORIS TO THE RESCUE

Kapow! Fear not Cameroons, Boris is here. Taking on the unlikely role of bringer of unity, the Mayor of London tells “ministers” that they should “cool their porridge [and] put a sock in it” in an interview with the Sun. It is, however, fine for Boris himself to criticise the Prime Minister, he explains, as “the last time I checked I wasn’t in the Cabinet.” Bo-Jo being loyal to his old school chum, or just panicked that a leadership campaign has got under-way without him? Surely only a cynic would think the latter. The interview took place in Paris as Boris is visiting the French capital. This morning he gave an interview to France Inter this morning in fluent French where he compared himself and Dave to Wallace and Gromit.

SHAPPS: TORIES MAY LOSE IN 2015

In an interview with The House magazine, Grant Shapps has conceded that the Tories may not win in 2015. As Bloomberg reports, he argued that the party needed to get its message across “not for our sakes. We may or may not win the next election, but my God we need to finish this, the job of stopping this country going bust, fixing the mess that Labour left, or at least as far as we can.”

CAMERON SACKS MILITARY ADVISER

The head of the Armed Forced Pay Review Board, the independent body which is responsible for military pay, has been sacked after suggesting that servicemen ought to be given a pay rise to compensate for defence cuts. We report that Prof Alasdair Smith had led the body when it concluded that the cuts had meant a “deterioration in the quality of military life”. Following the submission of the report in January, Prof Smith was told that his tenure would not be renewed when it expired this month.

IDS BLASTS BBC

Do not, as Iain Duncan Smith has warned before, underestimate the determination of a quiet man. IDS’s insistence that what Labour keeps calling the “bedroom tax” is a “spare room subsidy” has led him to write to the BBC to accuse it of failing in its “duty to inform the public”, the Sun reports. IDS told the corporation that “it is not the job of the BBC to use misleading terms and promote the views of the Labour party”. So there.

HUNT: NICHOLSON SHARES BLAME

Sir David Nicholson “bears some responsibility” for the tragedy at Mid Staffordshire, the Health Sectretary said yesterday. However, he added that Sir David does not bear “total, or indeed personal, responsibility for what happened”, as the Mail reports. How you can bear some responsibility, but not in a personal sense of the word, was a semantic mystery which Jeremy Hunt did not expand on.

SYRIA SIMMERS

Britain and France are moving closer to directly arming Syrian rebels, the Guardian reports. Following a meeting between Mr Cameron and Francois Hollande at the European summit in Brussels yesterday, a diplomatic effort has been launched to break German resistance to the end of an arms export embargo on Syria’s rebels. The Franco-British argument is that it is “odd” that a policy of protecting civilians was supported by another which ensured an imbalance of weaponry between the sides. The counter-argument, of course, is that you don’t protect civilians by flooding a warzone with guns. Horse for courses.

TOTALLY TRIDENT

Philip Hammond continued his strident defence of Trident while speaking in Edinburgh yesterday. The same people now backing the SNP’s threat to remove nuclear weapons stationed north of the border in the event of a vote for independence would be “wagging the finger” if Britain was threatened by a nuclear armed nation in the future, he added.

JOYCE ARRESTED

Eric Joyce was arrested last night in the Sports and Social Club on the parliamentary estate. The independent MP was detained after allegedly wrestling with two police officers, we report. Mr Joyce is understood to have objected to a request not to take a drink outside the bar.

AHMED SUSPENDED

Labour has suspended Lord Ahmed for allegedly blaming a Jewish conspiracy for a jail sentence he received following a fatal motorway crash. As we report, the peer allegedly told Pakistani television that he was opposed by “my Jewish friends who own newspapers and TV channels”. Lord Ahmed has said he has “no recollection” of the interview.

TWEETS AND TWITS

A day out in the Big Smoke goes pear shaped for John Woodcock’s team:

@jwoodcock: Staff from Barrow in London for the day. First act was to break a Tube ticket barrier by ramming an Oyster card into the slot.

TOP COMMENT

In the Telegraph

Fraser Nelson – Don’t attack Britain’s oldies – they keep the economy going

Jeremy Warner – Germany’s prudence is Europe’s pain

Stephen Pollard – The anti-Semites mistaken for mere eccentrics

Telegraph View – Parliament must support a free press

Best of the Rest

Philip Collins in the Times (£) – With this mess Labour should be miles ahead

Trevor Kavanagh in The Sun – If MPs seize the presses it is you who will lose out

Samuel Brittan in the FT (£) – The British Budget is not as great as it used to be

Polly Toynbee in The Guardian – March to stop this heartless and pointless bedroom tax

THE AGENDA

TODAY: David Cameron attends European Council Meeting. Universities and Science Minister David Willetts to announce the launch of the first higher apprenticeships in space engineering.

Ed Miliband should sack Ed Balls – and as brutally as possible

The Eastleigh by-election, whatever the result, marks the beginning of the end of the Coalition. A Tory defeat, though difficult for David Cameron, might be just about manageable. But those of us who support the Prime Minister and his Government must hope and pray for a Lib Dem victory, because any other result is potentially fatal.

Bear in mind that no figure, not even the Prime Minister, is as essential to the Coalition’s survival as Nick Clegg. Mr Clegg has been an admirable Deputy Prime Minister. He has been for the most part loyal, decent and trustworthy. Motivated ultimately by a sense of patriotism and service, he has been the glue which has kept this unnatural Lib Dem/Tory alliance together. I believe that his fortitude and perseverance have in general been beyond praise.

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Prime Minister’s Questions is not the place to remember Britain’s fallen

Yesterday Labour’s shadow defence spokesman Jim Murphy called on local authorities to name streets after members of the armed services who have been killed in the line of duty. It’s an excellent idea, and totally appropriate that we should mark those who have made the ultimate sacrifice.

But this policy announcement reminded me of something that’s been bothering me for a while, namely the practice of reading out the names of the recently fallen every week at Prime Minister’s Questions.

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Mansion tax: Labour shows its true colours with this spiteful tax on homes

Whoa there, I hope you haven’t just spent a happy weekend of pottering about and improving your home, in the way of British families for hundreds of years. Forget about the conservatory, folks. Stuff the new kitchen. You want my advice, you will let it all slide.

If you see one of those damp patches appear on the ceiling – about the size and colour of a poppadom – you should just lie back and watch it grow. If the floorboards yawn open, just cover the gap with cardboard. Never mind the state of the downstairs lavatory. A faint aroma of ammonia never hurt anyone. Drip from the ceiling? Shove a bucket under it.

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